Published by American Chamber/Mexico

 

August 2009

Vol. 1, No. 38


AmCham Hosts Final Economic Forum of 2008

Mexico's Central Bank's Deputy Governor addressed AmCham members on the causes for the recent economic crisis and the economic outlook for 2009.


 

Everardo Elizondo, Deputy Governor of Mexico’s Central Bank, spoke before 150 AmCham members about the current economic crisis, the effect it has had on the acquisitive power of the peso and what is being done to avoid further negative repercussions.

The event, which took place at the Quinta Real hotel on Friday, October 24, is the third in a three-part series of 2008 Economic Forums held by AmCham’s Monterrey Division. The gracious sponsorship of law firm Baker & McKenzie kept the event free of cost.

Elizondo categorized the current situation as an unpredictable congruence of multiple economic factors that resulted in a world-wide crisis.

He also stated that Mexico’s Central Bank acted in order to protect the strength of the peso through the auctioning of dollars. Although this measure cannot fully counteract the market’s tendency, it can help to ameliorate its effect on the country.

Elizondo described the crisis as a “Black Swan”, a reference to a book by Nassim Nicolas Taleb’s on the impact of the highly improbable. According to Taleb’s book, in order to be characterized as a “Black Swan”, an event must possess three attributes. 

“First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable,” says Taleb.

Elizondo praised the bailout packages approved by various governments and central banks around the world, but said that their effect would not be immediate. The global markets have continued to decline because of diminished expectations for short-term economic growth or recession and because the financial system takes time to assimilate, digest and put into the effect the measures taken by the governments. The process of economic recovery and the return of trust in the financial system will take time to complete.   

One of the main points Elizondo got across during his one-and-a-half hour presentation was that the Mexican peso has not been weakened by the economic downturn. Yes, the dollar has become more expensive than the peso, but that is a result of millions of investors consolidating their savings into U.S. Treasury Bonds to protect themselves from the crisis. The steep rise in demand for the dollar is what caused the peso to appear weaker in comparison.

AmCham’s Economic Forums, which put the Chamber’s members face to face with some of the country’s most brilliant economic minds, are some of the most popular events of the year. The current economic climate threatened to turn this year’s forums into somber events, but the affability and quick wit of Elizondo kept the event lively and entertaining.

When asked his expectations on the price of the dollar in relation to the peso in 2009, he answered that his expectation was that it would fluctuate with tongue firmly planted in cheek.

Elizondo’ advice for financial directors and investors for the following year is that “the name of the game is prudence and liquidity.”

After the presentation, AmCham/Monterrey Vice-President Robert W. Chandler of Shanchez Devanny Eseverri thanked Elizondo and Baker & McKenzie representative Adrian Flores and presented them with certificates of appreciation.

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