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AmCham Hosts Final Economic Forum of 2008 Mexico's Central Bank's Deputy Governor addressed AmCham members on the causes for the recent economic crisis and the economic outlook for 2009.
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Everardo
Elizondo, Deputy Governor of Mexico’s Central Bank, spoke before 150
AmCham members about the current economic crisis, the effect it has had
on the acquisitive power of the peso and what is being done to avoid
further negative repercussions.
The
event, which took place at the Quinta Real hotel on Friday, October 24,
is the third in a three-part series of 2008 Economic Forums held by
AmCham’s Monterrey Division. The gracious sponsorship of law firm Baker
& McKenzie kept the event free of cost.
Elizondo
categorized the current situation as an unpredictable congruence of
multiple economic factors that resulted in a world-wide crisis.
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He
also stated that Mexico’s Central Bank acted in order to protect the
strength of the peso through the auctioning of dollars. Although this
measure cannot fully counteract the market’s tendency, it can help to
ameliorate its effect on the country.
Elizondo described the crisis as a
“Black Swan”, a reference to a book by Nassim Nicolas Taleb’s on the
impact of the highly improbable. According to Taleb’s book, in order to
be characterized as a “Black Swan”, an event must possess three
attributes.
“First,
it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations,
because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier
status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence
after the fact, making it explainable and predictable,” says Taleb.
Elizondo praised the bailout packages
approved by various governments and central banks around the world, but
said that their effect would not be immediate. The global markets have
continued to decline because of diminished expectations for short-term
economic growth or recession and because the financial system takes
time to assimilate, digest and put into the effect the measures taken
by the governments. The process of economic recovery and the return of
trust in the financial system will take time to complete.
One of the main points Elizondo got
across during his one-and-a-half hour presentation was that the Mexican
peso has not been weakened by the economic downturn. Yes, the dollar
has become more expensive than the peso, but that is a result of
millions of investors consolidating their savings into U.S. Treasury
Bonds to protect themselves from the crisis. The steep rise in demand
for the dollar is what caused the peso to appear weaker in comparison.
AmCham’s Economic Forums, which put the
Chamber’s members face to face with some of the country’s most
brilliant economic minds, are some of the most popular events of the
year. The current economic climate threatened to turn this year’s
forums into somber events, but the affability and quick wit of Elizondo
kept the event lively and entertaining.
When asked his expectations on the
price of the dollar in relation to the peso in 2009, he answered that
his expectation was that it would fluctuate with tongue firmly planted
in cheek.
Elizondo’ advice for financial
directors and investors for the following year is that “the name of the
game is prudence and liquidity.”
After the
presentation, AmCham/Monterrey Vice-President Robert W. Chandler of
Shanchez Devanny Eseverri thanked Elizondo and Baker & McKenzie
representative Adrian Flores and presented them with certificates of
appreciation.
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